After a year of “waiting and seeing” in 2025, we’re entering a period of market stabilization that offers a unique window for those ready to start their homeownership journey.
At Ourboro, we know that buying a home is about more than just numbers; it’s about finding a place to build your future. Here is what we’re watching as the market finds its footing in 2026.
Interest Rates: Finding the New Normal
For the first time in several years, interest rates are no longer the villain of the housing story for those looking to get into the market. Following the Bank of Canada’s series of cuts throughout 2025, the key policy rate has plateaued at 2.25%. This shift from rising rates to a stable plateau is a massive win for homebuyers.
This stability acts as a confidence booster for the Ontario real estate forecast. Instead of sitting on the sidelines hoping for one more 0.25% drop, buyers can return to the table with a clear, predictable understanding of their monthly carrying costs. This renewed certainty is expected to drive a 6% to 7% increase in sales volume across Ontario as pent-up demand finally meets a more predictable lending environment.
A Tale of Two Markets: GTA vs. The Rest of Ontario
In 2026, the Ontario housing story won’t be one-size-fits-all. We’ll continue to see a significant divergence in pricing depending on the type of home you’re looking for and the neighbourhood you want to call home.
- The GTA Condo Correction: High inventory levels in the Greater Toronto Area, especially in the condo sector, continue to tip the scales in favour of buyers. Royal LePage projects an aggregate price drop of 4.5% in the GTA, but the real story is in the high-rise market. GTA condo prices are forecast to continue their decline by roughly 6.5%, bringing prices back to levels we haven’t seen since 2020.
- Stability in Single-Family Homes: While condos are correcting, detached homes remain the bedrock of the market. In the GTA, these prices are only expected to dip by a modest 1.0%, reflecting the continued, high demand for more space.
- Growth in Emerging Hubs: Outside the GTA, the narrative shifts toward steady growth. More affordable cities in Ontario, such as Ottawa and parts of southwestern Ontario, are experiencing sustainable growth of approximately 2.0%. These regions continue to attract families looking for that perfect balance of affordability and community vibrance.
New Rules: 30-Year Amortizations & More Access
Recent federal policy shifts are finally starting to move the needle for first-time homebuyers in Ontario. Three major changes are defining the 2026 landscape:
- 30-Year Amortizations: First-time buyers can now access 30-year mortgage amortizations for new builds and any home under $1.5 million. By spreading payments over an extra five years, your monthly costs become significantly more manageable.
- The $1.5M Insured Mortgage Cap: Previously, any home priced over $1 million required a 20% down payment. As of December 2024, the cap for insured mortgages has been raised to $1.5 million, meaning you can now purchase a home in that price bracket with a much smaller down payment.
- Reduced Investor Competition: New OSFI guidelines have made it slightly more challenging for multi-property investors to dominate the entry-level market. By capping high-leverage lending and ending income recycling (using the same stream of income to qualify for multiple different mortgages), these rules ensure that banks prioritize stable, primary residents over speculative buyers. This means when you find a home you love, you’re more likely to be competing against another family rather than a professional landlord.
Alternative Paths to Homeownership
While the 2026 market stabilization is a win for many, the reality of saving for a 20% down payment in Ontario, especially in the GTA, remains a steep climb. Fortunately, the standard path to homeownership isn’t the only one anymore.
As we enter this new market chapter, several alternative models are gaining traction to help buyers move from renting to owning years sooner.
This is where Ourboro comes in. We partner with you by contributing to your down payment to help you reach that 20% threshold. You own the home and live in it, while we act as a silent partner sharing in the home’s future appreciation.
Meeting the 20% mark allows you to avoid CMHC mortgage insurance premiums, which can add up to 4% to your total mortgage cost. By lowering your debt load and removing these insurance costs, your monthly payments become more manageable, leaving more room in your life for what matters.
We’re not a lender; we’re a co-owner. This means our interests are perfectly aligned with yours. If the market thrives and your home appreciates, we both celebrate that growth. If the market takes a dip, we share that risk with you. Ourboro also offers renovation credits, discounted home maintenance services through our partners at Caboodl, and help with covering land transfer tax.
In today’s market, having a partner who shares the risk and the reward can be the ultimate peace of mind.
Strategic Advice for the 2026 Market
If you’re a buyer who’s ready to get into the market in 2026, the combination of stable rates and high condo inventory means you have more negotiating power than we’ve seen in years. It’s a great time to ask for home inspections and financing conditions, things that were nearly impossible during the frenzy of 2021.
For sellers, success this year is all about being realistic and human. While the market is active, it’s a balanced market, not a seller’s market. Focusing on professional presentation, staging, and honest pricing will help your home stand out among the increased inventory.
At Ourboro, we hope that 2026 will be another step towards a more accessible future for all Ontarians.
